Week of September 15

FOMC more important than seasonality

Recap of last week

Quiet week for us last week. Last week was pivotal in that we received alot of new market information and economic data which will dictate how the FOMC meeting goes. That will then dictate how the stock market trades here into the third quarter.

We closed a hedge opened in August for -20%. We had left tail protection through the most treacherous part of the month, as PPI/CPI/NFP/NFP revisions had a chance to upset the apple cart. The data came in overwhelmingly bullish, we are not married to either side bull or bear and as of writing think it doesn’t make sense to stay hedged (unless we were to break below key downside levels again). We had a great setup, very poor seasonality into a minefield of catalysts. The economic data came in better than expected in every regard, our thesis was proved wrong, we cut it for a small papercut loss. We then move on to the next play. No need to be dogmatic and be team bear or team bull. We are team making money.

On the futures side, with the recent realized volatility crash, it was difficult to get filled. We ended up executing only 1 trade, a NQ long closed for +9 pts. Quiet start to September so far.

Late September/October typically is the most volatile month or so of the year so lets see if some range expansion finally comes.

Next move for markets