Week of November 17

Bulls on the precipice.

Recap of last week

Last week we dumped half of our swing long position just before the market collapsed.

Wednesday at 11:47 pm, when ES was 6888, we closed out our calls for a 35% gain. Forsaw a sell the news reaction on Thursday and decided to take profit. Market proceeded to dump 150 points in the next 24 hours. We then failed in catching the falling knife and gave back those gains in short order.

Ultimately, for a -180 bps down day in the SPX, very happy with just a small loss on the day. Can’t predict these huge vol shocks, no one can. If you get out with a small loss or flat you should be really happy with that. For momentum, that was the worst day of the year behind only DeepSeek, to give you an idea of the carnage below the surface and in single name stocks.

We still have two swings, risk reversals from 6500s in ES, and call spreads from 6660s in ES which are still both green.

Right now the bull trend and especially the AI factor is in serious jeopardy and expecting a make or break this week.

Next move for markets