Week of May 15

Finally some range expansion?

Recap of last weeks action:

My bearish bias for last week proved to be correct yet again.

Price action was really disgusting this week, no other way to put it. But ultimately we only traded 10 pts above the open price on Monday, while there were 2 chances to close shorts near 4100 on SPX. No big winner this week, but sometimes the market is just not offering you those, and there’s nothing you can do but sit on your hands. Worse thing you can do is force trades.

Really not much action this week, just a theta burn grind fest, but if you followed by bearish bias you at least weren’t caught with your pants down going long this weak market.

These were both small winners by Wednesday, nothing groundbreaking, but took almost no MAE except some theta burn. Solid base hits. I think the key this week was not getting caught long. The cardinal rule for trading will always be never take big losses. Small win great, small loss great, big win amazing. Big loss is a huge no no. It is mathematically just extremely difficult to recover from big losses. Never forget, if you’re down 50% on your portfolio, you need 100% just to break even.

Next move for markets?