Week of March 9

There's only one trade to make here.

Recap of last week

So after one of the quietest starts to a year we have seen in many decades, things are starting to heat up majorly. VIX is at 30. The 6 month range of 6750-7000 that we have been trading in the SPX looks like it’s on the cusp of breaking. I think this next week or two is one of those rare times where you can make or break your year.

The end of December, we sold all of our stocks, predicting a weak start to 2026 and perhaps longer. Until very recently we had literally 0 equity exposure which was absolutely the right call. A few weeks ago we sold some puts to fund some risk reversals we remain long. But outside of that remain long no other equity exposure.

I am always a buyer at stocks, at the right price. As of last Friday’s close of 6740, I am not a buyer. The risk reward does not favour buyers at that level.