Week of March 3

Mag 7 collapses. Are we now in a STFR regime.

Recap of last week

Very ugly week as the pain across the investment and trading community is widespread. Asset managers had their worst week collectively since October 2022, which was one of the most volatile months in the depths of the last bear market.

We also were buying the dip and got steamrolled. Everyone I spoke to over the week, guys worth 8-9 figures were hemorrhaging money as the market literally collapsed in some pockets. We thought NVDA would gap up on earnings, and were wrong and our calls went to zero.

Due to the nature of momentum, where the trades that keep working become crowded over time, it’s natural and inevitable to have these painful unwinds. It’s part of the game. The only ones who never have a losing week are paper traders. Buy the dip is still one of the best ways to make money in this stock market, sometimes the dip keeps on dipping and you get rocked. Thats just the way it is.

If you make say 1 million bucks buying the dip since the October 2022 bear market bottom, and you lose 25-50k trying to buy the dip close to the end of the bull market, you really can’t be mad. You got to keep riding the bull until it dies I think.

Thats the bad news, the good news is I think we are doing better than most people, our calls got destroyed but myself and most of my room is severely underweight Mag 7 which was where most of the destruction lies.

I sent out this update hours from the exact top tick of the Mag 7 ETF.

Really this was one of those weeks where if you only lost some money and not a fuckton, you are actually killing it. Our calls got rocked, but we have almost 0 Mag 7 exposure unlike almost everybody else. We actually had an amazing week even though it doesn’t feel that way.

Myself and many of my followers, are holding this UnMagnificent portfolio where our Mag7 exposure is <10%. All we hold is through a 30% through our SPY position. So 30% x 30% is roughly 9% Mag 7 exposure. Believe me when I say everyone last week holding Mag 7 is having one of the worst weeks in many years.

The 50ptMAE portfolio is about +3.5% YTD. Compared to the Nasdaq which is down on the year -0.42% or the SPY is up 1.63% as of writing. If you are overweight Nasdaq, or MAGS (which is down -5.45% YTD) then you are in dire straits.

All in all, not a good week but doing better than most people having dumped our Mag 7 exposure in November. Thats keeping us in the black YTD.

Now onto next week. I think everyone is thinking the same thing, have we flipped to a STFR regime, time to get bearish on the stock market?

Next move for market