Week of March 11

My views and positioning into CPI.

Recap of last week

Another winning week.

Hard to not make money when you were long NVDA last week. Although I certainly wished I held longer, rationally speaking, NVDA went on a huge +SD move and choosing to hold winners for extreme outlier events is generally bad trading/wishful thinking. So we got in, took a nice profit, got out before it topped. I am happy with that. Never going to catch the top or bottom of any move, and it’s a waste of time to spend time thinking about it. I did make the mistake of not holding a couple of runners, but generally wanted to risk-off before the event-risk heavy week.

We made a weekly high at around 5187 on Friday, fulfilling a price target I had set from my Feb 26 weekly plan. This is an excerpt. One direction bias, specific price target, and gave the best approximation of timing that I could.

Finished the week with another juicy long on Friday morning, going for almost 50 pts on 2.5 points of MAE. I also called out a short opportunity at 5250-5260. We topped at 5257 before reversing from green to red and closing on the lows.

That was a huge reversal from the bears on payrolls, the question is do they hold that momentum through next week with CPI on deck very early in the week. NVDA dropping 100 points from the highs into the lows in a large, ugly bearish engulfing candle has the bulls on their backfoot.

Did we just top?