Week of July 14

Time to expect a Mid July swoon?

Recap of last week

Last week we predicted a bit of weakness and we certainly got that.

We sold off about 80 points from the long weekend Friday into Monday of last week.

We saw realized volatility contract even further into the single digit range. We are starting to prepare for a more volatile 3Q as I doubt VIX can remain this subdued for much longer.

The only trade we took was a long term hedge that is in profit so far.

Seasonality wise, mid July it is quite common to see a peak, will that be the case again?

Next move for markets