Week of April 20

Have we reached the end of the rally.

Recap of last week

We called this entire move stone cold. Last weeks weekly post is entirely free to read and posted when ES was indicated to open at 6750, last traded price was 7164.

Our risk reversals which we put on April 8, we closed out for 18x. They actually ended up becoming 25x if you held later in the week. This options structure was actually a roll from last month where they settled for 2.5x. So we have been consistently relentlessly selling puts to fund upside this entire war move. While the crowd freaks out over meaningless news we have been raking in the cash.

The markets relentless rally over the past couple of weeks has been driven in very large part by indiscriminate flows and alot of chasing and “stop in”. Its time for an update on where we are in the rally.

Next move for markets