Week of April 17
Earnings season has finally arrived. Does the R word rear its ugly head?
Recap of last weeks action:
Next move for markets?
Up. We are in the upper bound of my 3800/4200 range trade I outlined a couple weeks ago. I am not seeing the catalyst for a sell just yet.
I was bullish again last week. The low of the week was pretty much right after I sent out my weekly newsletter.
Let’s do a quick little flashback. This is an excerpt from my March 27 plan, when we were trading about 3970. I predicted we might test 4150 again in Mid April. That prediction came true, as we traded up to 4160 on Friday.
And let’s rewind even further here back to March 13. Here we have my trade ideas and plan from that weekly newsletter sent out right after the Silicon Valley bank collapse, where I turned bullish at 3750/3800. The low was ultimately 3808 on SPX.
So to sum up the last month, I was bullish at the lows, remained bullish to the current day where we are trading 350 points higher. If you rode this rally with me we made alot of money together. If you go back and read past newsletters, you see I am bullish in no uncertain terms. These newsletters are never altered after the fact, I couldn’t even if I tried as they are sitting in your respective email inboxes in their original state, timestamped. Be very wary of Twitter accounts making wild predictions, in both directions and deleting all their wrong predictions. Many very popular accounts on Fintwit this week led their followers into massive short bets while the market ripped almost 100 pts. One of the things I always take pride in here is there are no multiple scenarios meant to be ambiguous and confuse readers and to absolve myself of any responsibility if market were to not trade my way.
I know when I was in my early years as a trader I really desired something like what I hope my newsletter is today. The only resources I were able to find were generally just esoteric levels, and useless if/then statements. Such as if SPY trades 410 it may trade 415, and below 410 it will trade 405. Just because words are coming out doesn’t mean you are really saying anything.
My only other longs at the moment are bullish XLF, KRE, oil and oil equities. XLF.
XLF was a massive winner. Trading up about 6.5% since this tweet. KRE is lagging a bit, as it is “ground zero” of this bank crisis. So naturally more fear, more shorts, more volatility. I have made an adjustment to this position which I will share in my trade ideas section.
Oil is still a massive winner and I am letting it run.
Next move for markets?